Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
Team FISSUREwin 1:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
ESforceloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team FISSURE
No games played over 6 months.
ESforce
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 654 bans
Phoenix
497 picks · 796 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 480 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 553 bans
Muerta
422 picks · 362 bans
Magnus
417 picks · 1007 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 763 bans
Bristleback
388 picks · 911 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Team FISSURE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team FISSURE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team FISSURE 64%ESforce 36%
The model gave 64% on Team FISSURE — the game was taken by Team FISSURE.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam FISSURE · 64%
Series resultTeam FISSURE 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1