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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 33 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
81%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 31 game
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
64%

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 27 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 27 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 652 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
497 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 552 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
422 picks · 362 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
417 picks · 1006 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 763 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
387 picks · 911 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:41
Tundra Esports 68%Team Liquid 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendyrachyo
55% · 218 games51% · 261 game
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Razor
Razorbzm
45% · 197 games46% · 105 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
47% · 290 games50% · 36 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSaksa
58% · 67 games49% · 247 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
57% · 6 games49% · 129 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed44:45
Tundra Esports 71%Team Liquid 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 47:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
56% · 217 games54% · 94 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
46% · 123 games47% · 387 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Doom
Doom33
51% · 340 games52% · 206 games
BristlebackSabeRLight-
Bristleback
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
52% · 165 games44% · 127 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Enchantress
EnchantressSaksa
51% · 360 games46% · 391 game
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2