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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 19 games
84%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 14 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 47 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 42 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 37 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 33 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 31 game
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 26 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 649 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
497 picks · 800 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 481 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
452 picks · 552 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
426 picks · 364 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
422 picks · 1012 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 762 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
385 picks · 911 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
Chimera Esports 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTA2000
55% · 195 games58% · 93 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Visage
VisageDaxak
43% · 66 games44% · 216 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
49% · 263 games50% · 72 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Marci
MarciOneJey
54% · 100 games49% · 195 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
46% · 283 games50% · 331 game
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct15:45
Chimera Esports 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
52% · 72 games55% · 172 games
Monkey KingSumaiL
Monkey King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDaxak
55% · 87 games48% · 121 game
DawnbreakerATF
Dawnbreaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
44% · 180 games47% · 58 games
TidehunterSkiter
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaPanto
56% · 92 games47% · 193 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOneJey
53% · 354 games46% · 241 game
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2