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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 22 games
55%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 21 game
67%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 47 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 38 games
87%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 33 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 30 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 26 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 643 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 802 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 483 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 553 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
425 picks · 366 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
422 picks · 1016 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 764 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
387 picks · 209 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total54% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:7
Team Spirit 45%Team Falcons 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
57% · 257 games42% · 108 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
47% · 222 games46% · 33 games
ViperATF
Viper
Abaddon
AbaddonCollapse
42% · 62 games48% · 272 games
PangolierSumaiL
Pangolier
Muerta
Muertarue
44% · 232 games63% · 56 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
57% · 28 games54% · 332 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed25:20
Team Spirit 50%Team Falcons 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
54% · 209 games52% · 125 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
49% · 132 games47% · 401 game
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
51% · 218 games51% · 200 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
51% · 284 games50% · 333 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskrue
49% · 249 games42% · 33 games
AbaddonSneyking
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 54%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2