DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 28 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 22 games
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 20 games
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 28 games
Muertasignature
Scofield · 20 games
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 17 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Magnussignature
Yuma · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 641 bans
Phoenix
501 picks · 801 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 483 bans
Batrider
451 picks · 553 bans
Magnus
424 picks · 1016 bans
Muerta
422 picks · 366 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 762 bans
Lich
387 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total77% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
PARIVISION 66%Heroic 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySatanic
Huskar4nalog
BroodmotherDM
AbaddonYuma
DazzleNo[o]ne
MarsWisper
MiranaDukalis
ClockwerkScofield
Marci9Class
WarlockKJ
Game 2prediction correct27:4
PARIVISION 66%Heroic 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSatanic
Leshrac4nalog
PuckNo[o]ne
Night StalkerWisper
Dark SeerDM
AbaddonYuma
Tusk9Class
Shadow DemonKJ
JakiroDukalis
LionScofield
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 77%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2