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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 34 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 32 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 31 game
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
75%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 32 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 27 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 27 games
81%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
54%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Pure~ · 19 games
68%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 639 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
503 picks · 801 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
482 picks · 483 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 553 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
423 picks · 1016 bans
57%
Muerta
Muerta
422 picks · 368 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 761 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
387 picks · 210 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head9 – 4
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:31
Tundra Esports 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 48:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
48% · 77 games42% · 182 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Invoker
Invokerbzm
44% · 172 games61% · 53 games
RikiPure~
Riki
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
46% · 230 games51% · 211 games
MagnusMieRo
Magnus
Mirana
MiranaSaksa
64% · 69 games56% · 201 game
PugnaSave-
Pugna
Muerta
MuertaWhitemon
44% · 201 game49% · 102 games
JakiroKataomi
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Tundra Esports 57%BETBOOM TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 14:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcidyrachyo
44% · 29 games57% · 34 games
HuskargpK~
Huskar
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
53% · 34 games54% · 138 games
MagnusPure~
Magnus
Broodmother
Broodmother33
36% · 15 games38% · 35 games
AbaddonMieRo
Abaddon
Io
IoWhitemon
61% · 18 games53% · 50 games
Shadow ShamanSave-
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
47% · 190 games50% · 29 games
Winter WyvernKataomi
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2