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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 21 game
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 19 games
68%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 16 games
88%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 14 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
68%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Larl · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 637 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
502 picks · 803 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 485 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
452 picks · 553 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1016 bans
57%
Muerta
Muerta
424 picks · 367 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 765 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
389 picks · 210 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:37
Chimera Esports 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
55% · 185 games43% · 214 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDaxak
60% · 110 games57% · 131 game
EarthshakerLarl
Earthshaker
Tiny
TinyTA2000
50% · 393 games41% · 181 game
TerrorbladeCollapse
Terrorblade
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
50% · 239 games47% · 305 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Marci
MarciOneJey
50% · 112 games48% · 208 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed28:20
Chimera Esports 31%Team Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 49:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracLorenof
54% · 122 games56% · 83 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Marci
MarciTA2000
47% · 104 games49% · 98 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Abaddon
AbaddonDaxak
47% · 40 games44% · 118 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Techies
TechiesOneJey
46% · 110 games55% · 60 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Io
IoPanto
43% · 58 games57% · 75 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed33:12
Chimera Esports 33%Team Spirit 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
50% · 62 games51% · 186 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Leshrac
LeshracLorenof
55% · 154 games48% · 117 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Abaddon
AbaddonDaxak
36% · 76 games54% · 129 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroOneJey
51% · 221 game53% · 200 games
PhoenixMiposhka
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskPanto
49% · 317 games51% · 198 games
Rubickrue
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3