DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 46 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 40 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 40 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 34 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 30 games
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 25 games
Team Liquid
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 27 games
Muerta
Boxi · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 636 bans
Phoenix
502 picks · 804 bans
Clockwerk
484 picks · 486 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 554 bans
Magnus
426 picks · 1018 bans
Muerta
425 picks · 368 bans
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 765 bans
Lich
389 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total68% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Falcons 68%Team Liquid 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons.
Game 2prediction correct33:7
Team Falcons 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSkiter
SlarkmiCKe
BristlebackATF
Storm SpiritNisha
EarthshakerSumaiL
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
PhoenixSneyking
JakiroiNSaNiA
HoodwinkCr1t-
MarciBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 68%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2