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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 34 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 32 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 31 game
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
75%

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 26 games
81%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 22 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 21 game
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 633 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
501 picks · 802 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
484 picks · 486 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 554 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1018 bans
57%
Muerta
Muerta
425 picks · 368 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 764 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
389 picks · 210 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:29
Tundra Esports 65%PARIVISION 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:02:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
49% · 181 game54% · 115 games
BroodmotherSatanic
Broodmother
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
52% · 157 games48% · 155 games
SniperNo[o]ne
Sniper
Doom
Doom33
47% · 284 games51% · 236 games
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
49% · 288 games49% · 71 game
WarlockDukalis
Warlock
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
53% · 58 games49% · 391 game
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed37:43
Tundra Esports 64%PARIVISION 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
57% · 266 games38% · 116 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
58% · 197 games45% · 333 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSaksa
47% · 78 games38% · 16 games
DazzleDM
Dazzle
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
62% · 67 games44% · 66 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
61% · 153 games46% · 230 games
Tusk9Class
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed15:34
Tundra Esports 65%PARIVISION 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
43% · 74 games53% · 72 games
BroodmotherSatanic
Broodmother
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
53% · 205 games53% · 143 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Doom
Doom33
45% · 270 games60% · 114 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
48% · 57 games47% · 261 game
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
49% · 53 games49% · 69 games
MiranaDukalis
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3