Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
ESforceloss 0:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spirit Staffwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ESforce
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 633 bans
Phoenix
501 picks · 802 bans
Clockwerk
484 picks · 486 bans
Batrider
451 picks · 554 bans
Magnus
426 picks · 1018 bans
Muerta
425 picks · 368 bans
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 764 bans
Lich
389 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% ESforce
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% ESforce
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ESforce 68%Team Spirit Staff 32%
The model gave 68% on ESforce — the game was taken by Team Spirit Staff.
Model check result
Model favoriteESforce · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit Staff 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1