Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
ESforceloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aurora Staffwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ESforce
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
508 picks · 634 bans
Phoenix
502 picks · 802 bans
Clockwerk
484 picks · 488 bans
Batrider
451 picks · 556 bans
Magnus
426 picks · 1019 bans
Muerta
426 picks · 369 bans
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 764 bans
Lich
389 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% ESforce
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% ESforce
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ESforce 50%Aurora Staff 50%
The model gave 50% on ESforce — the game was taken by Aurora Staff.
Model check result
Model favoriteESforce · 50%
Series resultAurora Staff 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1