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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 28 games
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 20 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 16 games
44%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 45 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 40 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 39 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 34 games
62%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 30 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 25 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 631 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
503 picks · 801 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
484 picks · 487 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 556 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
427 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
424 picks · 1019 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 766 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
389 picks · 210 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 7
Model total77% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:17
Heroic 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuma
48% · 75 games44% · 78 games
Phantom AssassinSkiter
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
46% · 93 games62% · 30 games
HuskarATF
Huskar
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
54% · 44 games55% · 20 games
Death ProphetSumaiL
Death Prophet
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
39% · 59 games65% · 64 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerScofield
49% · 22 games49% · 101 game
MarciCr1t-
Marci
Game 2prediction correct9:38
Heroic 35%Team Falcons 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusYuma
50% · 160 games48% · 93 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
52% · 101 game46% · 193 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
57% · 232 games55% · 84 games
TidehunterSkiter
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
46% · 200 games44% · 286 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
47% · 101 game56% · 138 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct24:33
Heroic 36%Team Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 53:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
Earthshaker4nalog
54% · 93 games44% · 95 games
Phantom AssassinSkiter
Phantom Assassin
Ursa
UrsaYuma
42% · 117 games50% · 159 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusWisper
55% · 194 games53% · 112 games
MarsATF
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
50% · 53 games60% · 55 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
43% · 172 games49% · 208 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 77%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3