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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 19 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 15 games
87%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 12 games
75%

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 629 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
508 picks · 805 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
485 picks · 490 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
457 picks · 562 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1021 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
406 picks · 769 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
390 picks · 210 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:14
Chimera Esports 44%Heroic 56%
The model gave 56% on Heroic — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
45% · 92 games47% · 237 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Lifestealer
LifestealerTA2000
49% · 73 games60% · 180 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
54% · 204 games55% · 226 games
Monkey KingYuma
Monkey King
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
51% · 218 games51% · 76 games
Bounty HunterScofield
Bounty Hunter
Muerta
MuertaOneJey
46% · 190 games37% · 58 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct11:39
Chimera Esports 44%Heroic 56%
The model gave 56% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTA2000
42% · 82 games48% · 63 games
Leshrac4nalog
Leshrac
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
47% · 70 games59% · 66 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaxak
42% · 156 games40% · 53 games
AbaddonYuma
Abaddon
Muerta
MuertaOneJey
51% · 161 game60% · 288 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Warlock
WarlockPanto
52% · 54 games56% · 53 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed27:12
Chimera Esports 47%Heroic 53%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
47% · 39 games45% · 15 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
46% · 124 games51% · 77 games
Earthshaker4nalog
Earthshaker
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
57% · 92 games45% · 147 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOneJey
63% · 52 games44% · 150 games
MuertaScofield
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
53% · 130 games49% · 48 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 62%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3