Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
DOTA2.RU Teamloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
KIBER staffwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DOTA2.RU Team
No games played over 6 months.
KIBER staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
512 picks · 629 bans
Phoenix
510 picks · 805 bans
Clockwerk
486 picks · 491 bans
Batrider
457 picks · 562 bans
Muerta
432 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
427 picks · 1022 bans
Gyrocopter
407 picks · 769 bans
Lich
390 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% DOTA2.RU Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% DOTA2.RU Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
DOTA2.RU Team 50%KIBER staff 50%
The model gave 50% on DOTA2.RU Team — the game was taken by KIBER staff.
Model check result
Model favoriteDOTA2.RU Team · 50%
Series resultKIBER staff 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1