DreamLeague Season 25 · BO1
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Liquidwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 34 games
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 25 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 23 games
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 22 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 20 games
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
Team Liquid
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 26 games
Muerta
Boxi · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
515 picks · 808 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 629 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 496 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 566 bans
Muerta
435 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
429 picks · 1020 bans
Gyrocopter
409 picks · 773 bans
Lich
391 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:37
Yakult Brothers 39%Team Liquid 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckEmo
GyrocoptermiCKe
PudgeAme
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dark Seerzeal
Ember SpiritNisha
SlarkBoBoKa
JakiroiNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden天命
MuertaBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1