European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Flame Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 35 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 32 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
Ringmaster
MoOz · 29 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 27 games
Tiny
Worick · 26 games
Centaur Warrunner
Nefrit · 25 games
Flame Esports
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
Tusk
Stoic · 4 games
Windranger
legacy · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
emptiness · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Deles · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
633 picks · 437 bans
Rubick
577 picks · 317 bans
Phoenix
481 picks · 577 bans
Pangolier
449 picks · 655 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 386 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 520 bans
Puck
343 picks · 1034 bans
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:34
Zero Tenacity 72%Flame Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Lycanemptiness
Storm SpiritWorick
PhoenixStoic
UndyingMikSa`
TuskJeezy
Keeper of the LightdEsire
BaneMoOz
Game 2prediction missed38:40
Zero Tenacity 71%Flame Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Beastmasteremptiness
SnapfireWorick
Dark WillowJeezy
Primal BeastMikSa`
BaneStoic
HoodwinkdEsire
TuskMoOz
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 86%
Series resultFlame Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2