DreamLeague Season 25 · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 34 games
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 24 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 23 games
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 22 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 20 games
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Team Liquid
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 26 games
Muerta
Boxi · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
515 picks · 810 bans
Tiny
514 picks · 627 bans
Clockwerk
491 picks · 496 bans
Batrider
465 picks · 569 bans
Muerta
435 picks · 368 bans
Magnus
429 picks · 1021 bans
Gyrocopter
409 picks · 776 bans
Lich
392 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:11
Yakult Brothers 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkAme
PudgemiCKe
Ember SpiritEmo
SlardarNisha
Marszeal
BristlebackSabeRLight-
RubickBoBoKa
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Elder Titan天命
MiranaBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 70%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1