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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
39%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
41%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 42 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 39 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 33 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 31 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xibbe · 31 game
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 27 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
518 picks · 807 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 627 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
491 picks · 498 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
466 picks · 566 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
431 picks · 1015 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 780 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
393 picks · 211 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
Gaimin Gladiators 57%AVULUS 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinWatson
50% · 77 games49% · 52 games
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Troll Warlord
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
58% · 16 games43% · 35 games
Drow RangerStormstormer
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
52% · 215 games49% · 258 games
TinyXibbe
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockMalady
61% · 49 games46% · 77 games
JakiroSoNNeikO
Jakiro
Mirana
MiranatOfu
47% · 88 games55% · 23 games
SlarkEkki
Slark
Game 2prediction correct26:3
Gaimin Gladiators 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 20:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
48% · 165 games56% · 74 games
LifestealerSmiling Knight
Lifestealer
Bristleback
BristlebackWatson
56% · 176 games46% · 250 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
47% · 81 game47% · 284 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Muerta
MuertatOfu
47% · 200 games46% · 46 games
WindrangerEkki
Windranger
Warlock
WarlockMalady
54% · 70 games55% · 38 games
JakiroSoNNeikO
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 62%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2