DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 44 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 41 game
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 39 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 35 games
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
9Pandas
Tinyoften banned
erase · 30 games
Clockwerkoften banned
lupsione · 27 games
Elder Titan
Solo · 25 games
Lion
lupsione · 22 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 21 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 18 games
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
Solo · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
516 picks · 803 bans
Tiny
515 picks · 627 bans
Clockwerk
493 picks · 498 bans
Batrider
468 picks · 566 bans
Muerta
433 picks · 368 bans
Magnus
430 picks · 1011 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 780 bans
Lich
393 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Team Falcons 83%9Pandas 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorATF
Monkey KingV-Tune
Phantom LancerSkiter
PuckSerenada
MagnusMalr1ne
Underlordlaise
Bounty HunterCr1t-
RingmasterSolo
WarlockSneyking
Hoodwinklupsione
Game 2prediction correct39:26
Team Falcons 84%9Pandas 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSkiter
GyrocopterV-Tune
PangolierMalr1ne
Marslaise
Bounty HunterCr1t-
SlardarSerenada
ViperATF
UndyingSolo
JakiroSneyking
Batriderlupsione
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 96%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2