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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
summer bearwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 17 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 16 games
31%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 13 games
23%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 11 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
86 · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techiessignature
Aidar · 11 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
27%

summer bear

Techies
Techies
Delight · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 4 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
azimoff · 3 games
33%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 3 games
100%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
monodrama · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
azimoff · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
634 picks · 439 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
576 picks · 317 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 577 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 385 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
449 picks · 655 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
355 picks · 523 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 1031 bans
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 409 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% summer bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:36
Team Spirit Academy 51%summer bear 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by summer bear in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomkae
56% · 120 games51% · 241 game
Shadow Fiendzuyzyan
Shadow Fiend
Kunkka
Kunkka86
52% · 71 game45% · 261 game
Queen of PainPanda
Queen of Pain
Snapfire
SnapfireAidar
48% · 195 games66% · 7 games
Legion Commanderazimoff
Legion Commander
Warlock
Warlockkyford
57% · 253 games46% · 61 game
Ogre Magimonodrama
Ogre Magi
42% · 69 games
TechiesDelight
Techies
Game 2prediction missed34:33
Team Spirit Academy 51%summer bear 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by summer bear in 57:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniper86
55% · 42 games51% · 39 games
Drow Rangerzuyzyan
Drow Ranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkae
49% · 142 games52% · 129 games
Primal Beastazimoff
Primal Beast
Ringmaster
RingmasterAidar
45% · 121 game50% · 90 games
HuskarPanda
Huskar
Bane
Banekyford
54% · 110 games49% · 101 game
Undyingmonodrama
Undying
48% · 56 games
TechiesDelight
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 52%
Series resultsummer bear 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2