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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 29 games
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Larl · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 17 games
41%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
521 picks · 802 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 626 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
496 picks · 507 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
470 picks · 570 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
436 picks · 369 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
433 picks · 1013 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 783 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
394 picks · 212 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:17
Team Spirit 63%Gaimin Gladiators 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYatoro
40% · 41 game54% · 231 game
Dragon KnightWatson
Dragon Knight
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCollapse
47% · 176 games43% · 69 games
LinaQuinn
Lina
Zeus
ZeusMiposhka
40% · 117 games57% · 112 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
45% · 172 games61% · 45 games
RikitOfu
Riki
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerrue
60% · 41 game57% · 90 games
Elder TitanMalady
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct29:23
Team Spirit 66%Gaimin Gladiators 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
53% · 405 games48% · 162 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
53% · 173 games47% · 357 games
PangolierAce
Pangolier
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
55% · 249 games46% · 75 games
MarciWatson
Marci
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
58% · 71 game45% · 321 game
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
50% · 66 games44% · 49 games
IoMalady
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2