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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 15 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 14 games
86%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 13 games
77%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 11 games
82%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 11 games
64%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 34 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 24 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 23 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 22 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 18 games
61%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
519 picks · 800 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 623 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
496 picks · 506 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
470 picks · 568 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
435 picks · 369 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
433 picks · 1011 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 782 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
393 picks · 903 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:16
Chimera Esports 44%Yakult Brothers 56%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTA2000
51% · 409 games50% · 350 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaxak
55% · 49 games51% · 429 games
TinyEmo
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
51% · 212 games47% · 145 games
Dawnbreakerzeal
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
44% · 388 games54% · 128 games
Ogre Magi天命
Ogre Magi
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
48% · 46 games51% · 52 games
Bounty HunterBoBoKa
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Chimera Esports 44%Yakult Brothers 56%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
51% · 314 games48% · 189 games
LinaEmo
Lina
Tiny
TinyTA2000
54% · 362 games51% · 346 games
BeastmasterAme
Beastmaster
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaxak
46% · 189 games50% · 87 games
Night Stalkerzeal
Night Stalker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
55% · 70 games47% · 175 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
46% · 194 games52% · 332 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 59%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2