DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 26 games
Muerta
Boxi · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
Team Spirit
Batridersignature
rue · 29 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 25 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
Lion
rue · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
519 picks · 795 bans
Tiny
512 picks · 619 bans
Clockwerk
494 picks · 508 bans
Batrider
470 picks · 566 bans
Muerta
435 picks · 370 bans
Magnus
430 picks · 1010 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 780 bans
Bristleback
391 picks · 899 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total55% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:39
Team Liquid 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:02:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanSabeRLight-
Dragon KnightYatoro
Monkey KingmiCKe
TerrorbladeCollapse
PangolierNisha
InvokerLarl
HoodwinkBoxi
Muertarue
PhoenixiNSaNiA
ClockwerkMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed51:20
Team Liquid 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightmiCKe
BeastmasterYatoro
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
LinaLarl
Ember SpiritNisha
BristlebackCollapse
Nyx AssassinBoxi
Rikirue
JakiroiNSaNiA
HoodwinkMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2