DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Lionsignature
Tims · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 21 game
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 16 games
AVULUS
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 40 games
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 37 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 33 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 31 game
Pangolieroften banned
Xibbe · 29 games
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
516 picks · 793 bans
Tiny
512 picks · 615 bans
Clockwerk
491 picks · 508 bans
Batrider
467 picks · 567 bans
Muerta
434 picks · 371 bans
Magnus
430 picks · 1008 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 778 bans
Lich
391 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:16
BOOM Esports 49%AVULUS 51%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonJaCkky
PangolierStormstormer
PuckMac
BeastmasterXibbe
DoomFbz
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
BatriderJaunuel
PugnaSoNNeikO
RikiTims
Bounty HunterEkki
Game 2prediction missed24:35
BOOM Esports 50%AVULUS 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by AVULUS in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaJaCkky
AlchemistSmiling Knight
DawnbreakerFbz
LycanXibbe
PuckMac
Dragon KnightStormstormer
TuskTims
PhoenixSoNNeikO
ZeusJaunuel
BatriderEkki
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 50%
Accuracy by game0 of 2