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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 17 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 14 games
86%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
64%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 12 games
83%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 11 games
82%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
70%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 32 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 17 games
41%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
516 picks · 793 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 615 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
491 picks · 508 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
467 picks · 567 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
434 picks · 371 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 1008 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 778 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
391 picks · 211 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:38
Chimera Esports 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaLorenof
44% · 99 games56% · 44 games
HuskarQuinn
Huskar
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaxak
40% · 174 games53% · 407 games
BeastmasterWatson
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTA2000
48% · 275 games60% · 209 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOneJey
47% · 380 games48% · 402 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
48% · 348 games56% · 214 games
Ogre MagiMalady
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct35:23
Chimera Esports 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
54% · 223 games53% · 37 games
LycanWatson
Lycan
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTA2000
48% · 98 games58% · 69 games
LinaQuinn
Lina
Abaddon
AbaddonDaxak
36% · 76 games47% · 172 games
DoomAce
Doom
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOneJey
45% · 93 games53% · 309 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
49% · 337 games56% · 240 games
PhoenixMalady
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2