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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Moodeng Warriorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 43 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 40 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 38 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 35 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 26 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%

Moodeng Warriors

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Oli · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Abed · 5 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 4 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Abed · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Oli · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
513 picks · 788 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
509 picks · 613 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
488 picks · 505 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
466 picks · 567 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
434 picks · 370 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 1002 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 776 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
391 picks · 211 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:6
Team Falcons 79%Moodeng Warriors 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 21:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
54% · 62 games50% · 328 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Razor
RazorSkiter
50% · 234 games51% · 344 games
Dragon KnightAbed
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierATF
49% · 506 games52% · 196 games
BristlebackJT-
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
51% · 462 games47% · 362 games
BatriderJabz
Batrider
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
54% · 109 games43% · 143 games
ZeusOli
Zeus
Game 2prediction correct22:19
Team Falcons 78%Moodeng Warriors 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
51% · 114 games49% · 95 games
Queen of PainAbed
Queen of Pain
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
50% · 111 games44% · 203 games
TerrorbladeJT-
Terrorblade
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderATF
52% · 9 games47% · 311 games
Beastmaster423
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
47% · 217 games54% · 60 games
VenomancerOli
Venomancer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
52% · 291 game58% · 73 games
Bounty HunterJabz
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 92%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2