DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 17 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 15 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
Muertasignature
Scofield · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
513 picks · 788 bans
Tiny
509 picks · 613 bans
Clockwerk
488 picks · 505 bans
Batrider
466 picks · 567 bans
Muerta
434 picks · 370 bans
Magnus
430 picks · 1002 bans
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 776 bans
Lich
391 picks · 211 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:24
Shopify Rebellion 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTimado
UrsaYuma
BeastmasterPakazs
LycanWisper
EarthshakerYopaj
Monkey King4nalog
MorphlingHellscream
Shadow ShamanScofield
WarlockSkem
PhoenixKJ
Game 2prediction correct9:28
Shopify Rebellion 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTimado
UrsaYuma
Night StalkerPakazs
Earthshaker4nalog
TinyYopaj
LycanWisper
ZeusSkem
WarlockKJ
RikiHellscream
ClockwerkScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 51%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2