DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Lionsignature
Tims · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 20 games
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 16 games
Team Spirit
Batridersignature
rue · 29 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 22 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
Lion
rue · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
518 picks · 790 bans
Tiny
508 picks · 613 bans
Clockwerk
497 picks · 510 bans
Batrider
470 picks · 572 bans
Muerta
441 picks · 374 bans
Magnus
434 picks · 1003 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 783 bans
Bristleback
392 picks · 898 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total88% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:31
BOOM Esports 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistJaCkky
UrsaYatoro
LinaMac
TinyLarl
Dark SeerFbz
MarsCollapse
Spirit BreakerTims
WarlockMiposhka
ZeusJaunuel
Rikirue
Game 2prediction correct16:31
BOOM Esports 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinJaCkky
TinyYatoro
DoomFbz
Sand KingCollapse
PangolierMac
SlardarLarl
Bounty HunterTims
ZeusMiposhka
BatriderJaunuel
Shadow Demonrue
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 88%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2