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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 16 games
69%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 13 games
85%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 11 games
82%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 10 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
70%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 26 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 25 games
72%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
518 picks · 786 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 609 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
495 picks · 509 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
470 picks · 570 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 373 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 1001 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 782 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
391 picks · 895 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:14
Chimera Esports 34%Team Liquid 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
54% · 178 games53% · 98 games
EarthshakerNisha
Earthshaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
52% · 125 games46% · 162 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTA2000
49% · 14 games51% · 268 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaOneJey
45% · 144 games45% · 50 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
52% · 179 games50% · 62 games
Bounty HunterBoxi
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed31:18
Chimera Esports 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 36:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTA2000
51% · 65 games51% · 199 games
MagnusNisha
Magnus
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
41% · 114 games50% · 223 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
60% · 179 games52% · 275 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOneJey
54% · 459 games47% · 247 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Lich
LichPanto
52% · 180 games35% · 53 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2