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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Moodeng Warriorswin 2:0
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Moodeng Warriors

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Oli · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 4 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Abed · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Oli · 4 games
25%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Jabz · 4 games
50%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 34 games
59%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 15 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
niu · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
517 picks · 781 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 608 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
491 picks · 512 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
473 picks · 571 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 375 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 996 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 779 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
391 picks · 895 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:9
Moodeng Warriors 38%Xtreme Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 27:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackJT-
60% · 271 game51% · 359 games
Dragon Knightlou
Dragon Knight
Lifestealer
Lifestealer423
54% · 141 game41% · 63 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Tiny
TinyAbed
47% · 450 games52% · 209 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Zeus
ZeusOli
43% · 146 games48% · 376 games
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJabz
50% · 71 game52% · 72 games
WarlockUndyne_
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed31:13
Moodeng Warriors 37%Xtreme Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
42% · 237 games54% · 420 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJT-
51% · 256 games52% · 231 game
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyAbed
48% · 551 game55% · 354 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Zeus
ZeusOli
42% · 147 games57% · 85 games
Bounty HunterPoloson
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskJabz
47% · 362 games52% · 463 games
ClockwerkUndyne_
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 73%
Series resultMoodeng Warriors 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2