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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chimera Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 20 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Mac · 20 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 19 games
58%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 16 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 15 games
47%

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 16 games
69%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 13 games
85%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 11 games
82%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Lorenof · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
520 picks · 779 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 604 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 511 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
474 picks · 571 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 377 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
433 picks · 992 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 780 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
388 picks · 211 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:33
BOOM Esports 53%Chimera Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
52% · 228 games48% · 187 games
AlchemistTA2000
Alchemist
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMac
49% · 149 games47% · 219 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonFbz
45% · 54 games53% · 257 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderJaunuel
48% · 300 games52% · 122 games
ZeusPanto
Zeus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
55% · 120 games49% · 66 games
Bounty HunterOneJey
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed11:24
BOOM Esports 56%Chimera Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
49% · 132 games47% · 448 games
Dragon KnightTA2000
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
50% · 319 games51% · 247 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
56% · 127 games46% · 246 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTims
53% · 380 games47% · 397 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJaunuel
51% · 450 games52% · 70 games
Bounty HunterOneJey
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 56%
Series resultChimera Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2