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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 38 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 38 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 33 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 32 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 28 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
73%

Team Spirit

Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 29 games
66%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 22 games
82%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
520 picks · 779 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 604 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 511 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
474 picks · 571 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 377 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
433 picks · 992 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 780 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
388 picks · 211 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:27
AVULUS 31%Team Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
48% · 193 games56% · 148 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
49% · 309 games56% · 174 games
TerrorbladeCollapse
Terrorblade
Abaddon
AbaddonXibbe
47% · 48 games45% · 179 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Lich
LichSoNNeikO
51% · 135 games50% · 235 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Zeus
ZeusEkki
40% · 124 games57% · 73 games
Rikirue
Riki
Game 2prediction correct25:44
AVULUS 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSmiling Knight
52% · 148 games50% · 102 games
EarthshakerCollapse
Earthshaker
Huskar
HuskarStormstormer
59% · 31 game48% · 279 games
BeastmasterYatoro
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
46% · 385 games61% · 46 games
ViperLarl
Viper
Batrider
BatriderEkki
44% · 353 games46% · 412 games
Clockwerkrue
Clockwerk
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
45% · 64 games60% · 142 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2