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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
74%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
47%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 33 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 32 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 27 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
519 picks · 778 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 601 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 513 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
471 picks · 580 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 379 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
433 picks · 990 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 778 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
389 picks · 211 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 81%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total85% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:26
Heroic 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
53% · 288 games47% · 202 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
46% · 281 game50% · 330 games
Dragon Knightdyrachyo
Dragon Knight
Abaddon
AbaddonWisper
40% · 62 games50% · 263 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
49% · 369 games56% · 348 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
52% · 341 game52% · 198 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct9:16
Heroic 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Lina4nalog
51% · 165 games47% · 83 games
Bristlebackbzm
Bristleback
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuma
58% · 19 games54% · 146 games
Dragon Knightdyrachyo
Dragon Knight
Abaddon
AbaddonWisper
42% · 63 games50% · 53 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Zeus
ZeusKJ
46% · 145 games53% · 153 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
52% · 80 games53% · 37 games
RikiSaksa
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 85%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2