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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Chimera Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 39 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 39 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 33 games
76%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 32 games
53%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 28 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 28 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
73%

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 16 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 11 games
91%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Lorenof · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
528 picks · 784 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 601 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
501 picks · 524 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
481 picks · 592 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
458 picks · 389 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
438 picks · 1000 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 793 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 904 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:10
AVULUS 47%Chimera Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by AVULUS in 21:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
53% · 198 games50% · 201 game
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
46% · 43 games48% · 227 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
48% · 267 games59% · 151 game
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Zeus
ZeusEkki
48% · 101 game55% · 50 games
RikiOneJey
Riki
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
49% · 87 games41% · 67 games
AbaddonPanto
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct14:32
AVULUS 45%Chimera Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 35:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
40% · 120 games52% · 326 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckStormstormer
44% · 152 games54% · 102 games
LycanTA2000
Lycan
Tiny
TinySmiling Knight
48% · 351 game61% · 158 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
60% · 51 game51% · 107 games
Elder TitanPanto
Elder Titan
Zeus
ZeusEkki
43% · 106 games51% · 87 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2