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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 31 game
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 15 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
33%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 26 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 25 games
72%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
528 picks · 781 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 597 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 524 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
479 picks · 591 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
457 picks · 389 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
438 picks · 996 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 791 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
389 picks · 903 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 9
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:47
Gaimin Gladiators 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWatson
41% · 218 games52% · 224 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Sniper
SniperQuinn
52% · 101 game54% · 265 games
BristlebackSabeRLight-
Bristleback
Doom
DoomAce
45% · 165 games48% · 136 games
EarthshakerNisha
Earthshaker
Batrider
BatriderMalady
45% · 241 game48% · 87 games
Shadow ShamanBoxi
Shadow Shaman
Riki
RikitOfu
54% · 39 games71% · 52 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed43:20
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWatson
46% · 338 games43% · 126 games
LinaNisha
Lina
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
52% · 43 games58% · 242 games
BristlebackSabeRLight-
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
51% · 262 games58% · 113 games
EarthshakermiCKe
Earthshaker
Muerta
MuertatOfu
48% · 291 game43% · 351 game
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Oracle
OracleMalady
61% · 43 games50% · 145 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2