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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Moodeng Warriorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 22 games
73%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
47%

Moodeng Warriors

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Oli · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 4 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Jabz · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JT- · 3 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Abed · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
527 picks · 780 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 596 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
495 picks · 532 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
479 picks · 597 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
458 picks · 389 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
437 picks · 992 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
430 picks · 791 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
389 picks · 899 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Heroic 68%Moodeng Warriors 32%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:01:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Lina4nalog
49% · 147 games51% · 183 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Magnus
MagnusYuma
51% · 202 games49% · 181 game
Monkey King423
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
56% · 146 games56% · 78 games
TidehunterJT-
Tidehunter
Muerta
MuertaScofield
42% · 243 games62% · 29 games
VenomancerJabz
Venomancer
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterKJ
48% · 50 games45% · 317 games
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct31:2
Heroic 67%Moodeng Warriors 33%
The model gave 67% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
51% · 216 games54% · 438 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Abaddon
AbaddonYuma
38% · 49 games46% · 102 games
Phantom Assassin423
Phantom Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal Beast4nalog
49% · 317 games52% · 207 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
56% · 464 games55% · 231 game
MuertaJabz
Muerta
Zeus
ZeusKJ
41% · 113 games54% · 181 game
PugnaOli
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 80%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2