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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 18 games
61%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 16 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Quinn · 15 games
53%
Lich
Lichsignature
Seleri · 15 games
73%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 32 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 24 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 21 game
76%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 17 games
59%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
533 picks · 767 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 555 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 588 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
492 picks · 608 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
472 picks · 401 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
444 picks · 985 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
441 picks · 800 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
395 picks · 903 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Yakult Brothers 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightQuinn
54% · 322 games47% · 78 games
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
48% · 288 games43% · 206 games
Dawnbreakerzeal
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
49% · 297 games45% · 200 games
RazorEmo
Razor
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassintOfu
62% · 135 games50% · 208 games
PugnaBoBoKa
Pugna
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMalady
51% · 158 games51% · 508 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Yakult Brothers 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherWatson
48% · 80 games52% · 95 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Lina
LinaQuinn
47% · 125 games55% · 156 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierAce
46% · 371 game53% · 259 games
Doomzeal
Doom
Zeus
ZeustOfu
46% · 117 games58% · 48 games
RikiBoBoKa
Riki
Warlock
WarlockMalady
46% · 53 games50% · 188 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct34:13
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Yakult Brothers 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinWatson
51% · 98 games57% · 217 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierAce
50% · 356 games53% · 453 games
TinyEmo
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerQuinn
40% · 175 games60% · 125 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Muerta
MuertatOfu
45% · 182 games59% · 71 game
RikiBoBoKa
Riki
Zeus
ZeusMalady
44% · 95 games32% · 40 games
Abaddon天命
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3