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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Kyzko · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 12 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 12 games
42%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
30%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 31 game
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 24 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 20 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 19 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 17 games
59%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
542 picks · 767 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
505 picks · 561 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
498 picks · 587 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
495 picks · 614 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 406 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
446 picks · 992 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
444 picks · 806 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
397 picks · 907 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:18
Team Secret 47%Yakult Brothers 53%
The model gave 53% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
45% · 406 games52% · 201 game
AlchemistAme
Alchemist
Bristleback
BristlebackMikSa`
55% · 282 games55% · 101 game
Lycanzeal
Lycan
Tiny
TinySupream^
49% · 523 games48% · 281 game
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Warlock
WarlockPuppey
53% · 65 games46% · 533 games
BatriderBoBoKa
Batrider
Lion
LionThiolicor
48% · 319 games50% · 479 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct19:32
Team Secret 48%Yakult Brothers 52%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightParker
46% · 248 games48% · 125 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Invoker
InvokerSupream^
52% · 141 game54% · 207 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackMikSa`
50% · 183 games56% · 262 games
Primal Beastzeal
Primal Beast
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPuppey
49% · 93 games43% · 53 games
Bounty HunterBoBoKa
Bounty Hunter
Lion
LionThiolicor
51% · 173 games48% · 191 game
Lich天命
Lich
Game 3prediction correct9:30
Team Secret 50%Yakult Brothers 50%
The model gave 50% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 40:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSupream^
56% · 74 games42% · 110 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
56% · 113 games43% · 216 games
Dawnbreakerzeal
Dawnbreaker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
53% · 208 games50% · 186 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Lion
LionThiolicor
55% · 133 games22% · 5 games
Silencer天命
Silencer
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPuppey
59% · 79 games45% · 90 games
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 55%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3