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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Excel Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Titan

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
zzq · 1 game
0%

Excel Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Hara · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
RedPanda · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
547 picks · 766 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
509 picks · 570 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
498 picks · 621 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
498 picks · 588 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
485 picks · 412 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
453 picks · 807 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
449 picks · 1000 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
404 picks · 617 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Excel Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total69% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:23
Titan 69%Excel Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 34:52.
Game 2prediction correct34:22
Titan 69%Excel Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 30:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 69%
Series resultTitan 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2