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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Titan

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
zzq · 1 game
0%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 10 games
90%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
y` · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
83%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
547 picks · 764 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
511 picks · 578 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
501 picks · 620 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
498 picks · 587 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
488 picks · 413 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
454 picks · 806 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
452 picks · 1000 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
406 picks · 621 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 73%
Hero pool strength65% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total85% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:18
Titan 15%Team Tidebound 85%
The model gave 85% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 40:17.
Game 2prediction correct3:21
Titan 15%Team Tidebound 85%
The model gave 85% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 14:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 85%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2