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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
M80loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
payk · 11 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Matthew · 9 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 9 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Vitaly · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
payk · 7 games
57%

M80

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 28 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 27 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
MoOz · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 19 games
79%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
547 picks · 763 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
513 picks · 580 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
501 picks · 621 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 587 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
488 picks · 415 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
455 picks · 807 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
452 picks · 1000 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
407 picks · 625 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% M80
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:13
Looking for Org 40%M80 60%
The model gave 60% on M80 — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 50:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpayk
45% · 427 games51% · 420 games
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawPiPi
47% · 339 games54% · 292 games
BeastmasterILICH-
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingVitaly
50% · 213 games49% · 372 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiYadomi
48% · 184 games60% · 62 games
Shadow ShamanElmisho
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionMatthew
48% · 338 games50% · 355 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed53:13
Looking for Org 39%M80 61%
The model gave 61% on M80 — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkpayk
42% · 46 games47% · 185 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Axe
AxeVitaly
42% · 40 games46% · 60 games
Phantom AssassinK1
Phantom Assassin
Magnus
MagnusPiPi
51% · 238 games58% · 52 games
TidehunterILICH-
Tidehunter
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
62% · 70 games44% · 62 games
ZeusMoOz
Zeus
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
53% · 69 games51% · 104 games
MuertaElmisho
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 69%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2