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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 29 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 29 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 25 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 21 game
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
52%

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 14 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 12 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
30%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
546 picks · 762 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
511 picks · 579 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
501 picks · 621 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
493 picks · 587 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
488 picks · 415 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
454 picks · 805 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
452 picks · 1000 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
407 picks · 622 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total74% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:14
Zero Tenacity 36%Team Secret 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRetsu
45% · 200 games53% · 130 games
LycanMikSa`
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
44% · 186 games47% · 271 game
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Tiny
TinyStojkov
47% · 293 games57% · 44 games
PudgeParker
Pudge
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
50% · 53 games51% · 489 games
PhoenixPuppey
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
51% · 275 games58% · 73 games
RikiThiolicor
Riki
Game 2prediction correct19:40
Zero Tenacity 35%Team Secret 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRetsu
49% · 153 games51% · 174 games
LinaSupream^
Lina
Sniper
SniperStojkov
48% · 157 games53% · 247 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNefrit
50% · 349 games47% · 207 games
Monkey KingParker
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
46% · 361 game59% · 148 games
EnigmaPuppey
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
43% · 45 games54% · 289 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Game 3prediction correct28:31
Zero Tenacity 37%Team Secret 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 56:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRetsu
48% · 219 games48% · 220 games
TerrorbladeParker
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
51% · 89 games52% · 164 games
LinaSupream^
Lina
Tiny
TinyStojkov
48% · 314 games58% · 91 game
LycanMikSa`
Lycan
Lion
LionPablo
51% · 198 games56% · 182 games
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
Nyx Assassin
Abaddon
AbaddonLeBronDota
36% · 37 games48% · 200 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 74%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3