PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 2:3series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Dark Willow
QBFY · 19 games
Tusk
Zayac · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Shad · 13 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Kaori · 10 games
Lion
QBFY · 10 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 31 game
Lichsignature
Riddys · 30 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 29 games
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 27 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
545 picks · 756 bans
Clockwerk
508 picks · 580 bans
Batrider
499 picks · 621 bans
Tiny
496 picks · 586 bans
Muerta
488 picks · 413 bans
Magnus
454 picks · 993 bans
Gyrocopter
453 picks · 807 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 69%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:35
Natus Vincere 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 58:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterShad
Lifestealergotthejuice
Queen of PainSancity
TimbersawNiku
BeastmasterBOOM
Pangolierpma
Ogre MagiKaori
PhoenixRiddys
HoodwinkQBFY
ClockwerkZayac
Game 2prediction correct28:38
Natus Vincere 44%Natus Vincere Junior 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 55:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomShad
InvokerNiku
RazorBOOM
Lifestealergotthejuice
Monkey KingSancity
Centaur Warrunnerpma
WarlockKaori
ClockwerkZayac
MuertaQBFY
PugnaRiddys
Game 3prediction missed28:14
Natus Vincere 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaShad
Lifestealergotthejuice
Dragon KnightSancity
Beastmasterpma
DawnbreakerBOOM
TimbersawNiku
Bounty HunterQBFY
ClockwerkZayac
BatriderKaori
PugnaRiddys
Game 4prediction missed31:12
Natus Vincere 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingShad
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
DawnbreakerBOOM
Queen of PainNiku
TinySancity
Pangolierpma
EnigmaKaori
BatriderRiddys
MuertaQBFY
EarthshakerZayac
Game 5prediction correct8:31
Natus Vincere 42%Natus Vincere Junior 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaShad
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Beastmasterpma
Monkey KingSancity
GrimstrokeNiku
BatriderKaori
Bounty HunterZayac
MuertaQBFY
WarlockRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5