FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionEEExcel Esportswin 1:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TGthe goal of all life is deathloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Excel Esports
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Lion
Hara · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
Manic · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
RedPanda · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
the goal of all life is death
Tinyoften banned
GaN- · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Puckoften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
543 picks · 748 bans
Clockwerk
509 picks · 576 bans
Batrider
498 picks · 622 bans
Tiny
492 picks · 584 bans
Muerta
487 picks · 414 bans
Magnus
454 picks · 986 bans
Gyrocopter
451 picks · 806 bans
Lion
406 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% the goal of all life is death
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% the goal of all life is death
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Excel Esports 49%the goal of all life is death 51%
The model gave 51% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by Excel Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritethe goal of all life is death · 51%
Series resultExcel Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1