PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EEExcel Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tusk
zzq · 1 game
Excel Esports
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Lion
Hara · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
Manic · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 2 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Manic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
542 picks · 742 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 574 bans
Batrider
496 picks · 617 bans
Tiny
491 picks · 583 bans
Muerta
487 picks · 414 bans
Magnus
453 picks · 986 bans
Gyrocopter
449 picks · 804 bans
Lion
406 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Excel Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
Titan 70%Excel Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Titan — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 36:39.
Game 2prediction correct19:7
Titan 70%Excel Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 19:56.
Game 3prediction correct20:2
Titan 70%Excel Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 15:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 70%
Series resultTitan 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3