PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 3:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 34 games
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 30 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 22 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 20 games
Doomsignature
Ws · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 20 games
BOOM Esports
Lionsignature
Tims · 24 games
Earthshakersignature
Mac · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 20 games
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
Batridersignature
Tims · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 18 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
542 picks · 742 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 574 bans
Batrider
496 picks · 617 bans
Tiny
491 picks · 583 bans
Muerta
487 picks · 414 bans
Magnus
453 picks · 986 bans
Gyrocopter
449 picks · 804 bans
Lion
406 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total68% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:20
Talon Esports 60%BOOM Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanWs
BristlebackJaCkky
MorphlingNatsumi
PuckMac
Monkey KingMikoto
EnigmaFbz
VenomancerKuku
ZeusJaunuel
Bounty HunterJhocam
ClockwerkTims
Game 2prediction missed17:18
Talon Esports 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMikoto
Naga SirenJaCkky
SvenNatsumi
Dark SeerFbz
AbaddonWs
LinaMac
ClockwerkJhocam
TuskTims
PhoenixKuku
ZeusJaunuel
Game 3prediction correct31:16
Talon Esports 61%BOOM Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingNatsumi
AbaddonJaCkky
PuckMikoto
InvokerMac
BeastmasterWs
Night StalkerFbz
ZeusKuku
VenomancerJaunuel
ClockwerkJhocam
TuskTims
Game 4prediction correct30:26
Talon Esports 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 59:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
MagnusJaCkky
Templar AssassinMikoto
LinaMac
AbaddonWs
DawnbreakerFbz
Ogre MagiKuku
ClockwerkTims
RikiJhocam
PugnaJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 68%
Series resultTalon Esports 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4