PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuysloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kukuys
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 8 games
Marci
Palos · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Armel · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
BOOM Esports
Lionsignature
Tims · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 20 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 19 games
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
Batridersignature
Tims · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 17 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
539 picks · 740 bans
Clockwerk
500 picks · 573 bans
Batrider
494 picks · 614 bans
Tiny
488 picks · 581 bans
Muerta
485 picks · 414 bans
Magnus
451 picks · 986 bans
Gyrocopter
449 picks · 804 bans
Lion
406 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total75% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:25
Team Kukuys 35%BOOM Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackAbat
MorphlingJaCkky
InvokerArmel
DoomFbz
PhoenixPonyo
EarthshakerMac
53% · 148 games
PugnaTims
48% · 291 game
ClockwerkJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct17:49
Team Kukuys 37%BOOM Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackAbat
Templar AssassinJaCkky
Ember SpiritArmel
DoomFbz
ClockwerkPonyo
Earth SpiritMac
46% · 263 games
PhoenixJaunuel
49% · 234 games
TuskTims
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 75%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2