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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fayde · 17 games
59%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
YamSun · 7 games
57%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 7 games
71%

Hokori

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 9 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 9 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 7 games
43%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Sacred · 6 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
538 picks · 736 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 572 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
494 picks · 612 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
487 picks · 578 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 413 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
448 picks · 803 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
448 picks · 984 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
405 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
Wildcard Gaming 66%Hokori 34%
The model gave 66% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 25:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreYamSun
45% · 21 game44% · 111 games
Phantom AssassinCostabile
Phantom Assassin
Magnus
MagnusRCY
46% · 58 gameslittle data
Lone DruidFCR
Lone Druid
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
58% · 20 games51% · 55 games
ZeusGardick
Zeus
Muerta
MuertaBignum
63% · 45 games
Chen
ChenSpeeed
54% · 22 games
Game 2prediction correct44:14
Wildcard Gaming 64%Hokori 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYamSun
54% · 225 games47% · 388 games
MorphlingCostabile
Morphling
Puck
PuckRCY
51% · 124 games44% · 256 games
DawnbreakerFCR
Dawnbreaker
Bristleback
BristlebackFayde
57% · 142 games50% · 256 games
PugnaGardick
Pugna
Muerta
MuertaBignum
50% · 186 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSpeeed
53% · 223 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 74%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2