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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Flame Esportswin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4ikibamboniloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Flame Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
emptiness · 3 games
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Deles · 3 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 3 games
67%

4ikibamboni

Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 8 games
63%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
80%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
60%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
80%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ankou · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 4 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
yowaai · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
632 picks · 436 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
570 picks · 316 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 584 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 390 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
442 picks · 655 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 526 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 1033 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 296 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% 4ikibamboni
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% 4ikibamboni
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:36
Flame Esports 41%4ikibamboni 59%
The model gave 59% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark Seeremptiness
45% · 124 games52% · 85 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Rubick
RubickJeezy
45% · 397 games55% · 148 games
Ember Spiritre1bl
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingStoic
48% · 177 games47% · 106 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
57% · 122 games
Snapfirewaveformn
Snapfire
57% · 237 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed53:58
Flame Esports 38%4ikibamboni 62%
The model gave 62% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 57:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordemptiness
48% · 208 games55% · 144 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
38% · 181 game58% · 196 games
Ember Spiritre1bl
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkStoic
48% · 213 games55% · 82 games
BrewmasterAnkou
Brewmaster
58% · 91 game
Lionwaveformn
Lion
49% · 89 games
Baneani-san
Bane
Game 3prediction missed39:18
Flame Esports 38%4ikibamboni 62%
The model gave 62% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
Snapfireemptiness
41% · 372 games52% · 242 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Phoenix
PhoenixStoic
45% · 325 games54% · 24 games
Zeusre1bl
Zeus
Windranger
WindrangerJeezy
46% · 266 games61% · 106 games
LargoAnkou
Largo
56% · 441 game
Hoodwinkwaveformn
Hoodwink
55% · 150 games
Clockwerkani-san
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite4ikibamboni · 69%
Series resultFlame Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3