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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 15 games
27%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
xNova · 11 games
36%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 21 game
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 17 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
535 picks · 735 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 570 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
493 picks · 612 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
486 picks · 576 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 413 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
447 picks · 803 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
445 picks · 983 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
403 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total81% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:21
OG 31%Nigma Galaxy 69%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger23savage
45% · 42 games52% · 9 games
Lone DruidGhost
Lone Druid
Doom
DoomCeb
44% · 184 games56% · 190 games
MagnusSumaiL
Magnus
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNine
52% · 89 games58% · 36 games
AbaddonNo!ob
Abaddon
Enchantress
EnchantressxNova
48% · 207 games46% · 308 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
50% · 273 games51% · 252 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Game 2prediction correct28:33
OG 30%Nigma Galaxy 70%
The model gave 70% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 49:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
54% · 262 games49% · 162 games
Phantom AssassinGhost
Phantom Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
47% · 209 games49% · 148 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Magnus
MagnusCeb
54% · 235 games47% · 297 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Muerta
MuertaDaze
51% · 283 games52% · 323 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Lich
LichxNova
41% · 195 games57% · 254 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 81%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2